Record Air Passenger, Cargo Growth In 2024 Signals Strong Outlook For Airlines In 2025

Asia-Pacific airlines led the surge, while European and Middle Eastern carriers also posted strong gains. However, supply chain constraints limited capacity growth, underscoring the need for continued efficiency improvements. Looking ahead to 2025, growth is expected to moderate to 8.0%, aligning with historical trends

“2024 made it absolutely clear that people want to travel. With 10.4 per cent demand growth, travel reached record numbers domestically and internationally. Airlines met that strong demand with record efficiency. On average, 83.5 per cent of all seats on offer were filled—a new record high, partially attributable to the supply chain constraints that limited capacity growth. Aviation growth reverberates across societies and economies at all levels through jobs, market development, trade, innovation, exploration, and much more,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“Looking to 2025, there is every indication that demand for travel will continue to grow, albeit at a moderated pace of 8.0 per cent that is more aligned with historical averages. The desire to partake in the freedom that flying makes possible brings some challenges into sharp focus. First, the tragic accident in Washington last night reminds us that safety needs our continuous efforts. Our thoughts are with all those affected. We will never cease our work to make aviation ever safer,” he added.

Second is the airlines’ firm commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. While airlines invested record amounts in purchases of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2024, less than 0.5 per cent of fuel needs were meet with SAF. SAF is in short supply and costs must come down. Governments could fortify their national energy security and unblock this problem by prioritizing renewable fuel production from which SAF is derived. In addition to securing energy supplies and increasing the SAF supply, diverting a fraction of the subsidies given for fossil fuel extraction to support renewable energy capacity would also boost prosperity through economic expansion and job creation,” said Walsh. Asia-Pacific airlines posted a 26.0 per cent rise in full year international 2024 traffic compared to 2023, maintaining the strongest year-over-year rate among the regions. Capacity rose 24.7 per cent and the load factor climbed 0.8 percentage points to 83.8 per cent. Despite this strong growth, opportunities for further growth remain high, as international RPKs remain 8.7 per cent below 2019 levels. December 2024 traffic rose 17.1 per cent compared to December 2023.

European carriers’ full year traffic climbed 9.7 per cent versus 2023. Capacity increased 9.2 per cent, and load factor rose 0.4 percentage points to 84.1 per cent. For December, demand climbed 8.6 per cent compared to the same month in 2023.

Middle Eastern airlines saw a 9.4 per cent traffic rise in 2024 compared to 2023. Capacity increased 8.4 per cent and load factor climbed 0.7 percentage points to 80.8 per cent. December demand climbed 7.7 per cent compared to the same month in 2023.

North American carriers reported a 6.8 per cent annual traffic rise in 2024 compared to 2023. Capacity increased 7.4 per cent, and load factor fell -0.5 percentage points to 84.2 per cent. December 2024 traffic rose 5.1 per cent compared to the year-ago period.

Latin American airlines posted a 14.4 per cent traffic rise in 2024 over full year 2023. Annual capacity climbed 14.3 per cent and load factor increased 0.1 percentage points to 84.8 per cent, the highest among the regions. December demand climbed 11.3 per cent compared to December 2023.

African airlines’ annual traffic rose 13.2 per cent in 2024 versus the prior year. Full year 2024 capacity was up 9.5 per cent and load factor climbed 2.5 percentage points to 74.5 per cent, the lowest among regions but a record high for Africa. December 2024 traffic for African airlines rose 12.4 per cent over December 2023. Domestic full-year demand reached record highs for passenger numbers and load factors. The standout performer for 2024 Domestic RPK was once again China, which increased 12.3 per cent over 2023. There was stable growth across other major domestic markets. To note, Japan achieved 3.2 per cent growth while capacity contracted by 0.3 per cent. Only India had a fall in load factor (-0.6 per cent-point), but still achieved a load factor of 86.4 per cent—the highest among all domestic markets.

Total passenger traffic market shares by region of carriers for 2024 in terms of RPK are: Asia-Pacific 33.5 per cent, Europe 26.7 per cent, North America 22.9 per cent, Middle East 9.4 per cent, Latin America 5.3 per cent, and Africa 2.2 per cent.

“On average, 83.5 per cent of all seats on offer were filled—a new record high, partially attributable to the supply chain constraints that limited capacity growth. Aviation growth reverberates across societies and economies at all levels through jobs, market development, trade, innovation, exploration, and much more,” he said.

Walsh added that 2025 demand looks set to continue in the same vein but it will moderate aligned to historical averages.

Full-year demand for 2024, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased 11.3 per cent (12.2 per cent for international operations) compared to 2023. Full-year 2024 demand exceeded the record volumes set in 2021.

Full-year capacity in 2024, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 7.4 per cent compared to 2023 (9.6 per cent for international operations), while full-year yields averaged 1.6 per cent lower than 2023 but 39 per cent higher than in 2019.